This week, Texas Republicans sent their Senate primary to a runoff — and in doing so, handed Democrats their best shot at flipping a Texas Senate seat in a generation.
Sen. John Cornyn will face Attorney General Ken Paxton in a May 26 runoff. The winner will then face James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, in November. As a result of party primaries, Republicans will be in a weaker position no matter which candidate prevails.
Our research on three decades of congressional primary data reveals a troubling shift in what drives primary outcomes. Where party establishments and broad-based membership organizations once dominated — groups that supported candidates who could win in November — ideological mega-donors and ideological activists have taken over. The result is candidates who are more accountable to a handful of wealthy backers than to the voters they'd actually represent.
Cornyn's coalition reflects a traditional Chamber-of-Commerce Republicanism: his backers include Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman, former Gov. Rick Perry's Lone Star Freedom Project, and the Senate Leadership Fund — traditional power brokers who want a winner they can work with.
Paxton's coalition tells a different story. His Lone Star Liberty PAC is funded by a handful of wealthy ideologues, including the wife of a Trump-pardoned fraudster and a handful of billionaires pursuing ideological goals over electoral ones. Paxton remained competitive throughout — powered not by a broad coalition, but by ideologically motivated donors who prioritize purity over electability.
Polls have shown Paxton underperforming Cornyn in the general election, even trailing hypothetical Democratic opponents. Republican leaders know this. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and others have made the case to President Trump that a Paxton candidacy would require massive spending to keep Texas red — money Republicans would rather deploy to competitive races elsewhere.
But even if Cornyn wins the runoff on May 26, the party primary system has already done its damage. To survive Paxton's challenge, Cornyn — like his two rivals — spent months presenting himself to voters as the most pro-Trump candidate in the field. He has swerved right, hardened his policy positions, and been forced to play on Paxton's turf. Political analysts note that Cornyn is "a creature of the institution" whose approach to politics has become "anachronistic" as the party has shifted. The primary has pressured him to be less of what made him competitive in Texas — and more of what makes him vulnerable in November.
This is how party primaries harm democracy even when the "electable" candidate wins. The low-turnout, high-intensity primary electorate pulls candidates away from the center, leaving them weaker in the general election. Democrats, who haven't won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, see an opening — fueled by a bitter Republican primary fight, potential midterm backlash, and competitive polling.
Texas Republicans are victims of their own primary system, and the path out runs through primary reform. Under an open, all-candidate primary, every voter participates from the start, which means candidates are incentivized to build broad coalitions rather than cater to the most ideologically intense slice of a low-turnout electorate. Our research finds that all-candidate primaries undercut the outsized influence of the ideological donors and activists that are propping up the Paxton campaign, and reduce polarization.
Conservatives who are skeptical of primary reform should look at what the current system actually delivered: a deeply flawed candidate with serious legal baggage (Paxton) nearly toppling a four-term incumbent (Cornyn), a sitting senator forced to out-MAGA his rivals just to survive, and a general election fight in a state that should be safely red. All-candidate primaries don't “help Democrats” — they help ensure parties nominate the most representative, competitive candidate for the general election.
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Dr. Richard Barton is a Senior Research Fellow at Unite America and an Assistant Teacher Professor at Syracuse's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs.
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