Primary Season Will Decide Congress Before Most Americans Vote

Primary season is kicking off in five states — Arkansas, North Carolina, Texas, Mississippi, and Illinois — covering 77 U.S. House districts.

If you think these elections are just the opening act before the “real” contest in November, think again.

In 74 of those 77 districts — 96% — the race is effectively over before the general election even begins. The dominant party’s primary will decide who goes to Congress. Roughly 17% of the entire U.S. House will be effectively decided in March alone.

In Illinois, Arkansas, and Mississippi, not a single House race is rated competitive in November. Every district in those states will be settled in the dominant party’s primary.

And in more than a third of these districts — 26 races — the outcome is already locked in before a single vote is cast. These candidates are running unopposed in seats that will be safely won by the dominant party.

This staggering lack of competition in American elections isn’t an anomaly. It’s a preview of how the 2026 election will unfold across the country.

The Primary Problem, On Full Display

What’s happening in these five states is happening almost everywhere.

According to current race ratings, 92% of U.S. House seats nationwide are considered safe for one party, and the consequences are profound.

Primary voters look very different from general election voters. They are about four times more partisan, and there are far fewer of them. This is partly because in 16 states, 16.5 million independents are barred from participating in closed primaries, even though their tax dollars help pay for them.

This dynamic creates incentives for candidates that shape our politics. Candidates are rewarded for appealing to narrow, highly ideological bases of primary voters rather than to the broader public.

Most Voters Know Something Is Broken

The public isn’t blind to what’s happening.

A new national survey from RealClear Opinion Research/Emerson Polling, sponsored by the Unite America Institute, found that 81% of voters say it’s a problem that most congressional seats are decided in primaries rather than in November.

Eighty-four percent say it’s a problem that millions of independents are excluded from closed primaries.

Eighty-nine percent say low turnout in midterm primaries is a problem.

And 71% of voters — including majorities of Democrats, independents, and Republicans — support requiring states to hold open primaries.

In an open primary system, voters aren’t locked out based on party registration — independents can fully participate in the elections their tax dollars help pay for. Unite America supports going a step further with open, all-candidate primaries, currently being used in Alaska, Washington, and California. Every candidate runs on the same ballot and every voter can participate, regardless of party. The top finishers advance to the general election, pushing candidates to compete for a broad cross-section of voters from the start — not just a narrow partisan base.

March Is Just the Beginning

As the primary calendar unfolds, more and more power will be locked in early.

Based on current ratings and same-party matchups, we expect:

• About 25% of the House to be effectively decided by May 19
• About 50% by early June
• Roughly 75% by early August

By the time most voters are tuning into the general election, the vast majority of congressional seats will essentially already be settled. This is the Primary Problem looming over 2026.

A Solvable Problem

The good news is that this lack of competition isn’t inevitable.

States across the country are actively debating reforms to broaden participation and increase competition. Some have already adopted open or all-candidate primary systems, most recently New Mexico in 2025, that give every voter a voice and require candidates to appeal to a wider cross-section of the electorate from day one.

As March’s primaries they provide a window into how most of Congress is chosen — and why so many Americans feel unrepresented by the result. The question isn’t whether the system is working as designed. It is. The question is whether it’s working for voters.

If most of the House is effectively decided before summer — and in some cases before the first ballot is cast — then reforming how we conduct primaries may be the most important step we can take to restore meaningful competition, representation, and accountability in American democracy.

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