PRESS RELEASE: Alaska’s ______s are worth waiting for.

This isn’t the Thirteen Days you remember — you know, the one starring Kevin Costner about the Cuban Missile Crisis. (Great flick. Obviously has nothing to do with Alaska.)

No, today we’re 13 days from Alaska’s Division of Elections completing its count of the nation’s first top-four primary + ranked choice voting (RCV), in the special election to complete the remainder of the late Rep. Don Young’s term.

‍There’s a reason for that — and it ain’t RCV.

First things first: The early returns on Tuesday’s election say it was a success. Turnout has already surpassed each of the last three primary elections, and it could be a record once all absentee votes are counted.

That process will take until August 31. And it’s because Alaska statute contains a 15-day post-election period to receive and count every absentee and overseas ballot postmarked by election day. (It’s a 10-day period for primary elections.) There are three things you should know about this period:

1. It pre-dates 2020, when Alaskans approved the nation’s first top-four system, and therefore has nothing to do with ranked choice voting.
2. What it does relate to is out-of-state and overseas voters, particularly military voters: Alaska has a high overseas military vote compared to the rest of the U.S. population. In 2020, 3.7 percent of Alaska’s voters were Uniformed and Overseas Citizens (see pg. 40), the highest proportion of any state.
3. What it also relates to is geography: Alaska has a larger land mass than California, Texas, and Montana combined. That’s a lot of ground to cover for sending ballot data to the Division of Elections — which travel by land, by air, by sea, but not by the Internet.

So remember: Alaska’s military service members are worth waiting for. Alaska’s rural population is worth waiting for. Alaska’s students are worth waiting for. “Counting every vote” = “waiting 15 days;” 13, as of today, and 0 soon enough.‍

WHAT’S NEXT FOR THE RANKED CHOICE TALLY?

As a reminder, Alaska doesn’t tabulate ranked choice results as the 15-day period rolls along; it releases only the first choices listed on all counted ballots. Once August 31 hits, and all the absentee votes are in and recorded, the Division of Elections will calculate the RCV results.

• Producing RCV results takes a matter of minutes once the Division presses go. And that’s where we’re headed, too. As of this writing, the first-place candidate has about 38 percent of first-choice support — essentially guaranteeing that come the end of this month, the third-place candidate will need to be eliminated and the second choices on those ballots will be reallocated to the remaining two candidates. (Note: There are only three general election candidates in the House special because the fourth candidate to qualify from June’s primary withdrew. In November, the default ranked choice race will involve four candidates, as designed.)
  
  
• A candidate in first place with 38 percent — seems like a tight race. It’s worth keeping in mind, then, the possibility of a “come-from-behind” scenario, in which a candidate with the second- or third-most first choices can ultimately win. As the experts at FairVote say, such an outcome is not “an ‘upset’ or unfair result. It is a natural feature of RCV that means it is working how it is supposed to, that is, rewarding candidates with broad support over those who can only win by small pluralities.”
  
  
• The point of ranked choice voting is to help voters reach a consensus — the very example of improving voter representation from the status quo that is driving the Primary Problem.
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MORE ABOUT ALASKA AND TOP FOUR PRIMARIES

Unite America’s executive director Nick Troiano appeared on MSNBC on election night to discuss the contrast between the Alaska and Wyoming primaries. Let him tee it up for you: “There is a tale of two primaries playing out tonight. Both Sen. Murkowski and Rep. Cheney defended the rule of law and put country over party, but only one will emerge from their primary tonight … Why is that?”

We’ll have stuff for you about the New York and Florida primaries next week.