Almost half of all voters now forgo party labels, and are particularly vulnerable to exclusion under closed primary rules.
In an era defined by increasing partisanship and polarization, one often underappreciated trend has been the rise of political independents. Almost half of all Americans now rebuff party labels and identify as independents, with a June 2024 Gallup poll putting this figure above 50% for the first time. While the demographic profile of independents is quite diverse, young voters are among the most likely to identify as such. The predominance of young voters among the ranks of independents was underscored by demographic analysis of state voter files conducted by Change Research across 20 states. The research found that voters aged 18-34 were more likely to register as independents than as Republicans or Democrats (see Figure 1).1 By contrast, voters over the age of 65 were more likely to register as Republicans or Democrats.
Figure 1: Large Share of Young Voters Identify as Independents Across 20 States
These trends were mirrored in a 2023 Pew survey on a nationally representative sample, which also found that voters under 50 were considerably more likely to identify as independents or “something else” than those over 50 (see Figure 2).
Figure 2: Independents Concentrated Among Younger Age Cohorts
The high concentration of the young among independents suggests that they are particularly vulnerable to exclusion from American primary elections — in 15 states, these young voters cannot participate in closed congressional primaries. When general elections in these states are uncompetitive, as is frequently the case, these voters effectively get no say in who represents them. If young voters are disproportionately unable to vote in primary elections that effectively determine the winner, this may lead to negative downstream effects on their general political engagement, trust in political institutions, and overall orientation toward politics. By contrast, opening up the political process through primary reform could ensure new generations of voters have the opportunity to actively participate in all facets of American democracy.
Exploring the political attitudes of young independents reveals important features of their motivations, orientation toward the political system, and support for potential election reforms. Overall, independents eschew the Democratic and Republican parties due to the parties’ perceived corruption and failure to represent diverse viewpoints — and this is especially the case among the young. This feeling of estrangement also extends to the political process at large — as large numbers of young independents report feeling that their vote does not matter and that parties do not care about them. In fact, these concerns undergird independents’ overwhelming belief that their exclusion from primary elections is a serious threat to their rights.
Youth are a significant share of the growing cohort of independent voters: approximately 5 million independents in states with closed congressional primaries are aged 18-34. Therefore, understanding their attitudes is crucial in any attempt to renew American democracy.
While the Primary Problem affects independent voters across age cohorts, young people are particularly susceptible to this issue. Youth across party affiliations tend to vote at lower rates than older voters, meaning that they are already underrepresented in the electorate regardless of primary rule. For example, approximately 23% of voters aged 18-29 turned out in the 2022 midterm elections — just half as high as the overall turnout rate of 46%. Furthermore, turnout tends to be significantly lower in primary elections — and given that the young tend to predominantly identify as independents (see Figure 2), their voices are further muffled by their actual exclusion from the primary process. Across states with closed congressional primaries, an average of 30% of young voters are independent and thus barred from primary participation (see Figure 1). This exclusion is top of mind for many young independents — one respondent reported: “I feel like I don’t always have a voice in elections” (White Woman, 18-34), while another claimed: “My voice is irrelevant and this further proves [that] many people are not getting their voices heard and these politicians do not represent the majority” (Latino Man, 18-34).
Exploring voters’ motivations for registering as independents reveals important insights into their political experience. While a majority of both young and old independents attribute their political affiliation to perceived corruption in the current political system, the young are significantly more likely to express this sentiment; young independents are 11 percentage points more likely to agree that the major political parties “are too influenced by corporate interests or lobbyists” and 22 points more inclined to state that the “political system is corrupt and in need of significant reform” (see Figure 3). Likewise, 38% of young independents believe that political parties do not represent their views (compared to 22% of older independents), while 31% claim that they care more about local than national political issues (compared to 21% of older independents).
Figure 3: Dissatisfaction with Parties Is Top Among Young Independents’ Motivations
Young independents are further distinguished from their older counterparts by their lack of previous affiliation with a major political party (see Figure 4). A full 57% of independents aged 18-34 have never been registered Republicans or Democrats, compared to only 37% of independents 65 or older. A similar proportion of young and old independents were formerly Democrats (19% of young and 16% of old), while a larger share of older independents were formerly Republicans (22% of old and 13% of young). In many cases, young independents expressed the belief that the major parties were too extreme to adequately represent their viewpoints. As one said: “I dislike the two party system. I feel like it brings out the extremes on both sides” (White Woman, 18-34).
Figure 4: Majority of Young Independents Have Never Registered with a Major Party
However, young independents are not only motivated by disaffection from the two major parties; instead, they also expressed the belief that their independent status reflected their diverse viewpoints. As one survey respondent stated: “I agree with certain policies from both sides. I’m Independent because I choose based on whose policies I agree with the most” (Black Man, 18-34). Another independent voter stated: “Each party has principles that I agree and disagree with” (AAPI Woman, 18-34).
Overall, young independents stand out for their lack of former membership in the Democratic or Republican parties, which appears to be motivated by their strong belief that major parties and the current political system are corrupt and in need of significant reform. This lack of prior party registration is significant, as it suggests a sizable share of young voters across the 15 states with closed congressional primaries have never had the opportunity to participate in the candidate-selection process. For many who live in uncompetitive districts, this exclusion means they are unable to vote in the election that effectively chooses their elected representatives.
Young independents’ skeptical orientation toward the political system further separates them from their older peers, who express a more optimistic view (see Figure 5). When asked whether their vote genuinely makes a difference in election outcomes, 60% of older independents agreed, while 64% of the young disagreed. A similar split emerged regarding satisfaction with the options on the ballot in the November election (61% of the old were satisfied, 52% of the young were dissatisfied) and the belief that political parties are not important in democracy (54% of the young agreed, 50% of the old disagreed). While both young and old independents disagree that “there is no difference between the parties,” this sentiment is considerably stronger among the young (44% agreed) than the old (32% agreed).
Young independents appear particularly disheartened in their ability to influence political outcomes through existing institutions, such as political parties and elections. Increased political participation could potentially bolster these voters’ confidence and trust in the political system—however, exclusionary primary rules constitute a significant barrier to increasing young independents’ engagement in the political process.
Independent voters are keenly aware of their exclusion from important stages of the election process and broadly support reforms to increase their inclusion. In fact, large majorities of independents view their exclusion from the primary process as a violation of their voting rights—including almost 80% of those 18-34 and 74% of those 65 and older (see Figure 6). One respondent expressed: “I feel that it is a violation of rights” (AAPI Woman, 18-34), while another stated: “Everyone should have a right to have a say” (Latino Man, 18-34).
Figure 5: Independents View Primary Exclusion as a Voting Rights Issue
Large majorities of both young and old independents support various election reform proposals to make American elections more representative and inclusive (see Figure 7). More than 90% support calls for term limits and campaign finance reform. Support is also high for open primaries — in which independents can participate in either the Democratic or Republican primaries — and open, all-candidate primaries — in which all candidates compete in a single primary, regardless of party affiliation. For many independents, such reforms offer the opportunity to secure their full rights as citizens — and taxpayers. As one respondent put it: “Independent voters should have the ability to express their vote in either [party’s] primaries, especially because they are funded by our taxes” (Black Man, 18-34). There is also high support for independent redistricting commissions to end partisan gerrymandering, although this reform somewhat divides younger and older independents—86% of those 65 and older support this reform, while only 71% of those 18-34 do so.
Figure 6: Independents Broadly Support Prominent Election Reform Proposals
Thus, seeing their exclusion from the political process as a violation of their rights, independents are broadly supportive of election reforms — from opening up the primary process to updating how Americans run and finance elections.
Independent voters make up almost half of the American electorate, and this number rises further with each passing year. Yet, across the country more than 17 million independents are excluded from participation in party primaries — including approximately 5 million young independents. Given that more than 85% of U.S. House districts are uncompetitive in the general election, partisan primaries play an outsized role in determining who our elected representatives will be. In these districts, exclusion from the primary of the dominant party effectively prevents independent voters from having a real say on who represents them in the halls of government.
The exclusion of independents from closed partisan primaries is particularly impactful for young voters, who are more likely to identify as independents than are members of older age cohorts. Many of these young independents have never registered with a political party — and their deep dissatisfaction with the party system fuels their choice to embrace the independent label. Furthermore, compared to older independents, the young are more likely to express skepticism about the political process and believe they do not have a genuine impact on election outcomes. This is particularly worrisome within the broader political context of heightened polarization, partisan brinkmanship, and democratic erosion.
While there are no silver bullets to fix politics, giving young voters a greater voice in the political process would improve representation. States with closed primaries can reform laws to do so, by giving all independent voters the right to vote in all taxpayer funded elections. Additionally, adopting open, all-candidate primaries promises to further expand all voters’ choices, while potentially also encouraging ideological moderation, campaign civility, and more functional governance.
As one young independent put it: “Every citizen should have the right to vote in all elections and we as a country need to make it easier to participate in our elections” (Latino Man, 18-34).
1 The Independent Voters Poll was conducted by Change Research from January 10–20, 2024. The states included are: Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming.
