Primary Roundup: May 7 and May 14, 2024

Primary Roundup: May 7 and May 14, 2024

In the first half of May, four states (Indiana, Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia) held their congressional primary elections. These states have a combined total of 22 congressional districts. To this point, 13 states—with a total of 190 U.S. House seats—have held their congressional primaries. 

Maryland has closed primaries of these states, prohibiting nearly a million voters not registered with a major party from participating. 

Analysis of May 7 and May 14 Primaries

Indiana has nine congressional districts, and eight of them are rated “safe” by the Cook Political Report. This means that eight out of nine seats (89%) were effectively decided in the primary. Of the eight districts that were decided in dominant party primaries, seven featured two or more candidates. 490,620 people participated in those primaries—just 9% of the state’s voting-age population.

• Overall, approximately 9% of IN’s voting age population effectively elected 89% of the state’s U.S. House delegation in dominant party primaries.

Shortly following the primary, former Gov. Mitch Daniels wrote a piece about Indiana’s Primary Problem and how few voters are determining outcomes in the state.

Three of Indiana’s congressional seats were open this cycle. All of them were in safe districts, meaning the new representatives were effectively elected in the primary.

Notably, the three open seats all had seven or eight candidates run. Further, in Indiana’s 5th Congressional District, incumbent Rep. Victoria Spartz announced in February 2023 that she would not seek reelection but then reversed her decision in February 2024. During the year in which she was not running, several candidates entered the race, resulting in the district having nine candidates on the ballot. 

With so many candidates running in these decisive primaries, it was extremely likely that the winner would only need a plurality — and that’s exactly what happened in these four districts. 

• Former U.S. Rep. Marlin Stutzman won the eight-way IN-03 Republican Primary with just 24.2% of the vote. A member of the far-right Freedom Caucus, he was endorsed by The House Freedom Fund and the Congressional Freedom Caucus PAC when he served in the House previously. He edged out Tim Smith (22.6%) and Wendy Davis (19.4%), who were the other leading candidates.

• Rep. Victoria Spartz won renomination in the IN-05 Republican Primary against eight other candidates with 39.1% of the vote. Only one other candidate, Chuck Goodrich, was a strong challenger, receiving 33.2% of the vote.
  
  
• Likewise, Jefferson Shreve won the IN-06 Republican Primary with about 28% of the vote, and State Senator Mark Messmer won the IN-08 Republican Primary with 38.5% of the vote.

Maryland has eight congressional districts and all eight were rated safe, meaning that 100% of the state’s congressional seats were effectively decided in the primary. All eight districts had competitive primaries featuring two or more candidates. 679,441 people participated in those primaries, which is 14.1% of the state’s voting age population.

• Overall, approximately 14% of MD’s voting-age population effectively elected 100% of the state’s U.S. House delegation in dominant party primaries. 

Maryland had three open U.S. House seats this cycle, and they all saw large numbers of candidates run. 

Consequently, two of the open-seat primaries had plurality winners. 

• In MD-03’s Democratic Primary, 22 candidates were on the ballot and Sarah Elfreth won with just 36% of the vote. Harry Dunn, a former Capitol police officer who worked on January 6th, 2021, finished second with 25%. 
• In MD-06’s Democratic Primary, 16 candidates were on the ballot and April Delaney (the wife of former Rep. John Delaney) won with just 40% of the vote. 

The story is similar in Nebraska and West Virginia: 

• Nebraska has three congressional districts, two of which are rated safe, meaning they were effectively decided in the primary. 159,778 people voted in the two districts that were decided in the primary, which is 10.7% of the state’s voting-age population. Overall, approximately 11% of Nebraska’s voting-age population effectively elected two-thirds of the state’s U.S. House delegation in dominant party primaries. 

• West Virginia has two congressional districts, and both are rated safe for Republicans. Both districts had two or more candidates in the dominant party primary, and 207,244 people participated in those primaries. That is 14.6% of the state’s voting-age population. Overall, approximately 15% of WV’s voting-age population effectively elected 100% of the state’s U.S. House delegation in dominant party primaries. 

West Virginia had one open seat this cycle in WV-02, and five candidates ran in the primary. Riley Moore, the state treasurer of West Virginia who endorsed Trump for president over a year ago, won with less than a majority (45%) of the vote.  

Because so many elections are effectively decided in primaries, millions of eligible voters don’t have a real say in who represents them. States can address the Primary Problem by implementing reforms that put voters first, such as nonpartisan primaries. This will ensure that all voters have the right to vote for any candidate in every election—regardless of party—to establish a more representative and functional government.