Discover how the Primary Problem impacted congressional primaries in Mississippi, Illinois, and Ohio.
On Tuesday, March 12th & Tuesday, March 19, Mississippi, Illinois, and Ohio held their congressional primaries. These states have a combined total of 36 congressional districts. To this point, 9 states — with a total of 151 U.S. House seats — have held primaries for Congress and state offices.
So far, 3% of the voting-age population has effectively elected 31% of the U.S. House of Representatives. That means 136 out of the 435 seats have been decided in primaries. By the June 11th primaries, 50% of the house will already be effectively decided. By mid-August, nearly 75% of the House will have been determined. By the end of the primary season in mid-September, more than 80% of U.S. representatives will already be chosen.
All four of Mississippi’s congressional districts are rated “safe” by the Cook Political Report. Because they’re all uncompetitive in the general election, all of Mississippi’s U.S. House representatives were decided on Tuesday. Just one of the four safe seats saw more than one candidate run in the primary of the district’s dominant party — meaning there was competition. In those competitive primaries, 70,000 voters participated — which is just 3% of the state’s voting-age population.
This means that, overall, 3% of MS’s voting-age population effectively elected 100% of the state’s U.S. House delegation in dominant party primaries.
In all four of Mississippi’s “safe” districts, the incumbent sought reelection. In three of the four districts, the incumbent ran unopposed in the dominant party’s primary. In these districts, no voters will have a real say in who represents them. In District 4, freshman incumbent Rep. Mike Ezell (R) faced two primary challengers. Ezell prevailed with 73.2% of the vote.
Overall, 70,953 voters participated in these four primaries.
Illinois has 17 congressional districts, 16 of which are considered “safe.” This means that 94% of the state’s congressional seats were decided in the primaries. Just five of the 16 safe seats saw more than one candidate run in the primary of the district’s dominant party. In those competitive primaries, 338,600 voters participated — which is just 3% of the state’s voting-age population.
This means that, overall, 3% of IL’s voting-age population effectively elected 94% of the state’s U.S. House delegation in dominant party primaries.
Ohio has 15 congressional districts, 13 of which are considered “safe.” This means that 86% of the state’s congressional seats were decided in the primaries. Just five of the 13 safe seats saw more than one candidate run in the primary of the district’s dominant party. In those competitive primaries, 431,338 voters participated — which is about 5% of the state’s voting-age population.
This means that, overall, 5% of OH’s voting-age population effectively elected 87% of the state’s U.S. House delegation in dominant party primaries.
In OH-02, 11 candidates ran in the Republican primary. David Taylor, a “rock-ribbed conservative” and hardcore Trump supporter, won with just 25% of the vote, meaning the district’s new representative was effectively elected with the support of just one-quarter of Republican primary voters. In OH-06, 3 candidates ran in the R primary. Michael Rulli fell just short of a majority, winning with 49.6%.
