Summary and analysis of the congressional primaries held on June 25, 2024, in Colorado, New York, and Utah, including key outcomes, voter participation statistics, and the implications of closed primaries.
On Tuesday June 25th, three states held their congressional primaries (Colorado, New York, and Utah). These states have a combined total of 38 congressional districts. To this point, 31 states – with a total of 308 U.S. House seats – have held their congressional primaries.
Both New York and Utah have closed primaries, which means that over 4,000,000 million registered voters in those states were prohibited from participating in the primaries because they are not registered with a major party.
So far, 5% of the country’s voting age population has effectively elected 62% of the U.S. House. 13 closed primary states have held congressional primaries so far, blocking 13,239,391 independents from voting.
Colorado has eight congressional districts and six of them are rated “safe” by the Cook Political Report, meaning 75% of the state’s congressional seats were effectively decided in the primaries.
Of the six districts that were decided in dominant party primaries, just two had competitive primaries where two or more candidates participated. 209,547 people participated in those primaries, which is about 5% of the state's voting age population. Overall, approximately 5% of Colorado’s voting age population effectively elected 75% of the state’s U.S. House delegation in dominant party primaries.
Colorado has three open seats this cycle.
Notably, Lauren Boebert left Colorado's competitive third district to run in the safe Republican fourth district, which became vacant following Rep. Ken Buck’s (R) retirement. Boebert ultimately won the decisive Republican primary with a plurality (44%) of the vote against five opponents. Without a majority requirement, there was no mechanism in place for the Republican primary voters in the district who preferred someone else over Boebert to coalesce around a single alternative. As a result, Boebert will return to Congress for another term after only earning plurality support from the 21% of the district who participated in the primary.
New York has 26 congressional districts and 21 are rated “safe” by the Cook Political Report. This means that 81% of the state’s congressional seats were effectively decided in the primaries.
Of the 21 districts that were decided in dominant party primaries, just four had competitive primaries featuring two or more candidates. 165,853 people participated in those primaries, which is about 1% of the state’s voting age population. Overall, approximately 1% of New York’s voting age population effectively elected 81% of the state’s U.S. House delegation in dominant party primaries.
One of the most notable races in New York was the Democratic primary in the 16th district, where Jamaal Bowman (D) became the first House incumbent to lose a primary this cycle. He was defeated 59%-41% by George Latimer, a more moderate Democrat. Bowman is a member of the left-wing “Squad” who was first elected in 2020 following his successful primary challenge of former Rep. Elliot Engel. Much of the race focused on the candidates' vastly different stances on the Israel-Palestine conflict. Pro-Israel groups, including AIPAC, spent tens of millions opposing Bowman in what turned out to be one of the most expensive House primary elections ever.
Utah has four congressional districts and all four are rated “safe” by the Cook Political Report, meaning 100% of the state’s congressional seats were effectively decided in the primaries.
Of the four districts that were decided in dominant party primaries, three featured competitive primaries with two or more candidates. 273,406 people participated in those primaries, which is about 11% of the state’s voting age population. Overall, approximately 11% of Utah’s voting age population effectively elected 100% of the state’s U.S. House delegation in dominant party primaries.
One of the most notable races in Utah is the decisive Republican primary in the second district, which has not yet been called. Incumbent Celeste Maloy is currently leading challenger Colby Jenkins 51%-49%, but there are still more votes to count. At the Utah Republican Convention, which tends to be attended by a small and unrepresentative group of voters, Jenkins edged out Maloy. He also received the endorsement of Sen. Mike Lee (R) who took issue with Maloy working across the aisle to pass a federal budget. However, Maloy received Trump’s endorsement as well as the support of the other U.S. House members from Utah.
In Colorado and Utah, advocates are working to reform election systems and give voters a more meaningful say in their representation.
Colorado Voters First has proposed an initiative for the November 2024 general election ballot that, if passed, would reform both primaries and general elections by establishing Final Four voting. This system, which is currently used in Alaska’s elections, establishes nonpartisan primaries in which all candidates are listed on a single ballot and all registered voters can vote for any candidate, regardless of party. The top four vote getters then advance to the general election. In the general election, voters have the opportunity to rank candidates in order of preference, and a candidate must receive a majority of the votes in order to win.
Colorado has the most polarized legislature in the country, according to one study. This reform would ensure that voters have better candidate choices and a greater voice in elections in order to create more accurate representation.
Utah Ranked Choice Voting continues to promote the use of ranked choice voting in the state. In 2018, former Gov. Gary Herbert signed legislation that allowed cities in Utah to use ranked choice voting in their elections. Since then, many municipalities have had success with ranked choice voting, and even more are looking to implement the system.
