Primary Roundup: July 30 and August 6, 2024

Between July 30 and August 6, 2024, six states held their congressional primaries (Arizona, Tennessee, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington). These states have a combined total of 53 districts. To this point – 37 states with a total of 361 U.S. House seats – have held their congressional primaries 

National Update

So far, 6% of the country’s voting age population has effectively elected 73% of the entire U.S. House. Ten states have held closed primaries, blocking 13,239,391 independents from voting. 

Analysis of Primaries

The Cook Political Report has rated all of the congressional districts in Tennessee, Kansas, and Missouri safe for either party – meaning 100% of races were effectively decided in the primary.

Tennessee’s nine congressional districts were all effectively decided in dominant party primaries. Just three of the districts featured two or more candidates, meaning there was competition. 139,347 people voted in those primaries, which is about 3% of the state’s voting age population. 

• Overall, approximately 3% of Tennessee’s voting age population effectively elected 100% of the state’s U.S. House delegation in dominant party primaries. ‍
• One of the most notable races was in the fifth congressional district, in which incumbent Andy Ogles faced the toughest primary challenge of any of Tennessee’s incumbents. He prevailed with 57% of the vote against Courtney Johnston, a local elected official. Ogles had Trump’s support in his reelection bid. Johnston ran as a conservative outside candidate, claiming that Ogles had been ineffective in Congress and arguing that the district deserved better representation. 

Kansas’ four congressional districts were all effectively decided in dominant party primaries. Only two of the districts featured more than two candidates, meaning there was competition. 129,104 people voted in those primaries, which is about 6% of the state’s voting age population. 

• Overall, approximately 6% of Kansas’s voting age population effectively elected 100% of the state’s U.S. House delegation in dominant party primaries. ‍
• Kansas had one open seat race in the second congressional district, which is safe for Republicans. Former Kansas Attorney General Derek Schmidt won the decisive Republican primary. Five candidates appeared on the ballot, but Schmidt earned majority support (53%). Schmidt lost the 2022 gubernatorial race in Kansas to Gov. Laura Kelly, but the notoriety and name recognition he gained from that campaign helped propel him to victory. Schmidt also received Trump’s endorsement, despite the fact that one of his opponents, Jeff Kahrs, worked in the Trump administration. Ultimately, Schmidt’s name recognition and Trump’s endorsement led him to victory in the only notable U.S. House primary in Kansas this cycle. 

Missouri’s eight congressional districts were all effectively decided in dominant party primaries. Six districts featured two or more candidates, meaning there was competition. 599,637 people voted in those primaries, which is about 12% of the state’s voting age population. 

• Overall, approximately 12% of Missouri’s voting age population effectively elected 100% of the state’s U.S. House delegation in dominant party primaries. ‍
• One of the most notable races occurred in the Democratic safe first congressional district in which incumbent Cori Bush lost renomination in the Democratic primary to Wesley Bell, the prosecuting attorney for St. Louis County and a former member of the Ferguson City Council. Bush is a member of the left wing “Squad,” making her the second incumbent Squad member (after Jamaal Bowman) to lose a primary this cycle. Like Bowman’s primary, much of this race focused on the candidate’s differing positions toward the Israel-Hamas conflict, and pro-Israel groups spent large sums of money in support of Bell and against Bush. In fact, these two primaries are the top most expensive so far this cycle. 

The story is similar in Arizona and Michigan.

Arizona has nine congressional districts, and seven of them are rated safe by the Cook Political Report. This means that 78% of the state’s congressional seats were effectively decided in the primary. Of the seven districts that were effectively decided in dominant party primaries, just three featured two or more candidates, meaning there was competition. 255,869 people participated in those primaries, which is about 4% of the state’s voting age population. 

• Overall, approximately 4% of Arizona’s voting age population effectively elected 78% of the state’s U.S. House delegation in dominant party primaries. ‍
• Arizona has two open seats this cycle: AZ-03 which is safe for Democrats and AZ-08 which is safe for Republicans. Notably, both of these primary races were won with pluralities, meaning the new representatives were effectively elected without getting a majority of the vote. 

Michigan has 13 congressional districts and ten are rated safe, meaning 77% of the state’s congressional seats were effectively decided in the primary. Of the ten districts decided in dominant party primaries, just six featured two or more candidates, meaning there was competition. 505,930 people participated in those primaries, which is about 6% of the state’s voting age population. 

• Overall, approximately 6% of Michigan’s voting age population effectively elected 77% of the state’s U.S. House delegation in dominant party primaries. 

Washington has a top-two nonpartisan primary system, making it the second nonpartisan primary state to vote in this cycle (following California back in March). Unlike the other states that voted during this period, which have partisan primaries, voters in Washington were able to vote for their preferred candidate for every office, regardless of the candidate’s party.  

Washington has ten congressional districts and nine are rated safe. Two of the safe districts will have two candidates from the same major party face off in the general election. This means that the general election in those districts will be decisive, and all voters will have the opportunity to decide which candidate from the district’s dominant party they want to represent them. 

‍As a result, 70% of the state’s congressional seats were effectively decided in the primary. 

All seven of the districts that were decided in dominant party primaries featured two or more candidates, meaning there was competition. 1,387,024 people participated in those primaries, which is about 23% of the state’s voting age population.

• Overall, approximately 23% of WA’s voting age population effectively elected 70% of the state’s U.S. House delegation in dominant party primaries.‍
• One of the most notable races was in the fourth congressional district, where Republican incumbent Dan Newhouse finished second to Republican challenger Jerrod Sessler. The two will face off head to head in the November election. In 2022, Newhouse was one of three congressional Republicans to win reelection after voting to impeach or convict President Trump in the aftermath of January 6th. Sessler received Trump’s endorsement, making this a race between the MAGA and more traditional factions of the Republican party. Because of Washington’s top-two system, Newhouse was able to avoid being primaried and will advance to the general election against a far more extreme conservative. In the general election, he can appeal to voters in the middle – as well as Democrats in the district – in an effort to create an ideologically diverse coalition that can propel him to victory. 

Opportunities For Change 

In Arizona, advocates are pushing to reform their election system and give voters a more meaningful say in who represents them. Make Elections Fair Arizona is working to get an initiative on the November 2024 ballot that would replace partisan primaries with open all-candidate primaries. This would give all voters the opportunity to vote for any candidate in the primary, regardless of party.