New Data: In 26 States, There Was Zero Competition for the U.S. House

It’s commonly understood that only a handful of swing states determine the winner of the presidential election, leaving most Americans without a meaningful say in picking the next commander in chief. But a similar concerning dynamic also exists for Congress: In more than half of the states this year, there was zero general election competition for the U.S. House, according to a Unite America Institute analysis:

• In 26 states, every U.S. House race was uncompetitive in the general election, meaning their entire slate of representatives were effectively decided in low-turnout primaries.
• On average, 6% of eligible voters participated in primaries that effectively determined the entire House delegation for those 26 states.
• On average, 55% of eligible voters — 52.5M voters overall (and counting) — participated in the general election across those 26 states. But because there was no competition, that 9-fold increase in turnout had no meaningful effect on the outcome of House races.

Nationally, 87% of U.S. House seats were effectively determined in primaries by just 7% of voters this year. This “Primary Problem,” which the Unite America Institute began tracking in 2020, is getting worse with each election cycle:

• 2022: 8% of Americans elected 83% of the U.S. House
• 2020: 10% of Americans elected 83% of the U.S. House

Unite America and the election reform movement supported a record number of campaigns on state ballots this year for open primaries, instant runoffs, and other party-neutral reforms aimed at solving the Primary Problem problem and putting power into the hands of voters. Those initiatives faced unprecedented opposition from the political establishment, who spent tens of millions, engaged in underhanded tactics, and overall benefited from an environment of polarization and status quo bias where they were able to sow enough doubt among the electorate to protect their own power.

When so few voters have an outsize influence on election results, it should be no surprise that Congress tends to focus on issues important to the 7% that participate in party primaries, not what the majority of Americans want.