The “Primary Problem” is getting worse. A record-breaking six states have open primary initiatives on the November ballot to fix it.
Election Day is still a month away, yet 87% of U.S. House races have already been effectively decided by a mere 7% of eligible voters, according to a new analysis on the 2024 “Primary Problem” from the Unite America Institute (UAI). That’s 380 House seats already elected by 18.1 million Americans.
In many contests, the lack of competition is even more stark: 169 members ran unopposed in the primary for a safe general election seat, meaning they were effectively elected without having to win a single vote. That left 101 million voters - nearly 40% of the electorate - with no meaningful say in electing their next congressperson. Also noteworthy, closed primaries in 15 states prevented 15.7M registered independent voters from participating in the election that often determined the outcome.
The Primary Problem, which underpins the polarization and gridlock in Congress and state legislatures across the country, has gotten worse since UAI started tracking it in 2020. That year, 10% of Americans elected 83% of the U.S. House. In the 2022 cycle, 8% of Americans elected 83%. Not only are there fewer competitive seats, but more voters are becoming independent. In closed primary states, the number of voters unable to vote without a party’s blessing has increased by nearly 20% - or 8.5 million people - in a little over a decade.
“These numbers speak to the despair many Americans have that their vote does not seem to matter,” said Nick Troiano, Executive Director of Unite America and author of The Primary Solution. “But with a record number of open primary initiatives on the ballot this November, our movement is proving it doesn’t have to be this way. We have an opportunity to usher in a new era of politics where all voters’ voices matter and where our leaders represent a true majority — not just the 7% who determine party primaries.”
The previous record for election-related initiatives in any year since the early 1900s was three. This year, open primaries are on the ballot in six states. Each proposal would abolish party primaries and replace them with an open, all-candidate primary - where all candidates of all parties compete on a single ballot and all eligible voters can participate. The candidates with the most votes, regardless of party, advance to the general election.
Five states currently use some form of open, all-candidate primary for federal or state offices. Since Alaska, California, and Louisiana implemented their open primary systems, each state has seen an increase in voters casting ballots in meaningful elections, an increase in competition, and a decrease in polarization.
A federal solution could also be on the horizon. In July, Rep. Brian Fitzpartrick (PA-1) led a bipartisan group of representatives in introducing the Let America Vote Act, which would abolish closed primaries nationally and ensure every eligible voter’s right to participate in every taxpayer-funded election.
“There is no institution more fundamental to our democracy than our elections. Yet today, a staggering 87% of U.S. House races are determined by just 7% of eligible voters, undermining the very essence of our representative government,” said Congressman Fitzpatrick. “Since entering Congress, I have been unwavering in my mission to restore trust in our electoral process, and that starts with ensuring every American citizen has a voice. That’s why I introduced the bipartisan Let America Vote Act of 2024. This is not a political initiative; it’s a moral imperative that demands our immediate attention. We urgently need bold reforms that restore faith in our elections and guarantee every voter’s voice resonates loudly and clearly in our democracy.”
